بررسی سازگاری جو آبی در استان‌های همدان و لرستان با شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران.

2 استاد گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران.

چکیده

مقدمه و اهداف: هدف مطالعه حاضر شبیه ­سازی ارزیابی سازگاری جو آبی به تغییرات اقلیمی در استان­های همدان و لرستان  ،   برآورد عملکرد جو آبی در آینده تحت سناریو­های مختلف اقلیمی و ارائه­ی راهکارهایی برای بهبود عملکرد جو آبی در شرایط تغییر اقلیماست.
مواد و روش ها: مطالعه در 9 شهرستان استان­های همدان و لرستان انجام شد. شبیه­سازی رشد و نمو محصول جو با استفاده از مدل APSIM انجام شد. اقلیم آینده شهرستان­ها با استفاده از مدل اقلیمی HadGEM2-ES، سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 و روش AgMIP برای دوره 2070 -2040 شبیه­سازی شد. راهکارهای سازگاری شامل ارقام (آذران، جلگه و بهمن) و تاریخ کاشت­های مختلف (1 مهر، 15 مهر، 30 مهر، 15 آبان و 30 آبان) بودند.
 
یافته ها: نتایج اعتبارسنجی مدل زراعی APSIM نشان داد که مدل با دقت قابل قبولی عملکرد دانه را تحت تیمارهای مختلف شبیه­سازی کرد به طوری که nRMSE برابر با 02/15 درصد بود. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی باعث کاهش عملکرد محصول جو در استان­های مورد بررسی به میزان 4- و 2- درصد به ترتیب برابر تحت سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 شد. در زمینه ترکیب­های مختلف، در سراسر مناطق مورد مطالعه و سناریوهای اقلیمی، تغییرات عملکرد از 3/17- درصد در ترکیب تاریخ کاشت 30 آبان و رقم آذران و 9/20+ درصد در ترکیب تاریخ کاشت 1 مهر و رقم جلگه متفاوت بود.
 
نتیجه گیری:   براساس نتایج کسب شده  باید راهکارهای سازگاری در آینده برای جلوگیری از کاهش محصول جو آبی در استان­های مورد بررسی در نظر گرفته شود.  به طورکلی، در دوره آینده ترکیب­­های بهینه در مناطق گرم مانند شهرستان پلدختر تاریخ کاشت 1 مهر و رقم آذران، در مناطق معتدل مانند خرم­آباد و کوهدشت تاریخ کاشت 1 مهر و رقم جلگه و در سایر مناطق که اکثرا جز مناطق سرد هستند تاریخ کاشت 30 آبان و رقم بهمن می­باشند.  .
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Irrigated Barley for Adaptation to Climate Change in Hamadan and Lorestan provinces

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Valipour 1
  • Khosro Azizi 2
  • Sajjad Rahimi-Moghaddam 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
2 Prof., Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
3 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Background & Objective: The current research aimed to assess the adaptation of irrigated barley to climate changes in Hamadan and Lorestan provinces.  Estimating future irrigated barley yield under different climate scenarios and providing solutions to improve irrigated barley yield under climate change conditions.
 
Materials & Methods: The study was conducted in 9 counties of Hamadan and Lorestan provinces. APSIM model was employed to simulate of barley growth and development. The future climate (2040-2070) of the counties was projected using HadGEM2-ES climate model, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and AgMIP methodolog. Adaptation strategies included different cultivars (Azaran, Jolgeh and Bahman) and sowing dates (23-Sep, 7-Oct, 22-Oct, 6-Nov, and 21-Nov).
 
Results: The validation results of the APSIM model showed that the model accurately simulated grain yield under different treatments, so that the nRMSE was equal to 15.02%. The results indicated that climate change decreased barley grain yield in the studied provinces by -4% and -2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. For various combinations, across all studied locations and climate scenarios, yield changed from -17.3% for 21-Nov × Azaran cultivar and +20.9% for 23-Sep and Jolgeh cultivar.
 
Conclusion: Based on the results obtained, future adaptation strategies should be considered to prevent the decline in irrigated barley yields in the provinces under study. Overall, in the future, optimal combinations were 23-Sep and Azaran cultivar for warm regions such as Pol-e Dokhtar, 23-Sep and Jolgeh cultivar for temperate areas such as Khorramabad and Kuhdasht, and, 21-Nov and Bahman cultivar for the other locations which are mostly cold regions.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agmip Methodology
  • APSIM Model
  • Barley Cultivars
  • Hadgem2-ES Climate Model
  • Sowing Date

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دانش کشاورزی وتولید پایدار
دوره 35، شماره 2
تیر 1404
صفحه 155-171

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