Evaluation of Irrigated Barley for Adaptation to Climate Change in Hamadan and Lorestan provinces

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.

2 Prof., Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.

3 Assist. Prof., Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.

Abstract

Background & Objective: The current research aimed to assess the adaptation of irrigated barley to climate changes in Hamadan and Lorestan provinces.  Estimating future irrigated barley yield under different climate scenarios and providing solutions to improve irrigated barley yield under climate change conditions.
 
Materials & Methods: The study was conducted in 9 counties of Hamadan and Lorestan provinces. APSIM model was employed to simulate of barley growth and development. The future climate (2040-2070) of the counties was projected using HadGEM2-ES climate model, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and AgMIP methodolog. Adaptation strategies included different cultivars (Azaran, Jolgeh and Bahman) and sowing dates (23-Sep, 7-Oct, 22-Oct, 6-Nov, and 21-Nov).
 
Results: The validation results of the APSIM model showed that the model accurately simulated grain yield under different treatments, so that the nRMSE was equal to 15.02%. The results indicated that climate change decreased barley grain yield in the studied provinces by -4% and -2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. For various combinations, across all studied locations and climate scenarios, yield changed from -17.3% for 21-Nov × Azaran cultivar and +20.9% for 23-Sep and Jolgeh cultivar.
 
Conclusion: Based on the results obtained, future adaptation strategies should be considered to prevent the decline in irrigated barley yields in the provinces under study. Overall, in the future, optimal combinations were 23-Sep and Azaran cultivar for warm regions such as Pol-e Dokhtar, 23-Sep and Jolgeh cultivar for temperate areas such as Khorramabad and Kuhdasht, and, 21-Nov and Bahman cultivar for the other locations which are mostly cold regions.
 

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References

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Sustainable Production
Volume 35, Issue 2
July 2025
Pages 155-171

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