Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Ph.D. Student of Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
2
Prof., Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
3
Assist. Prof., Dept. of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
Abstract
Background & Objective: The current research aimed to assess the adaptation of irrigated barley to climate changes in Hamadan and Lorestan provinces.
Materials & Methods: The study was conducted in 9 counties of Hamadan and Lorestan provinces. APSIM model was employed to simulate of barley growth and development. The future climate (2040-2070) of the counties was projected using HadGEM2-ES climate model, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and AgMIP methodolog. Adaptation strategies included different cultivars (Azaran, Jolgeh and Bahman) and sowing dates (23-Sep, 7-Oct, 22-Oct, 6-Nov, and 21-Nov).
Results: The validation results of the APSIM model showed that the model accurately simulated grain yield under different treatments, so that the nRMSE was equal to 15.02%. The results indicated that climate change decreased barley grain yield in the studied provinces by -4% and -2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. For various combinations, across all studied locations and climate scenarios, yield changed from -17.3% for 21-Nov × Azaran cultivar and +20.9% for 23-Sep and Jolgeh cultivar.
Conclusion: Overall, in the future, optimal combinations were 23-Sep and Azaran cultivar for warm regions such as Pol-e Dokhtar, 23-Sep and Jolgeh cultivar for temperate areas such as Khorramabad and Kuhdasht, and, 21-Nov and Bahman cultivar for the other locations which are mostly cold regions.
Keywords
Main Subjects
)