The Effect of Climate Change and Price Risk on the Sustainable Production of Selected Irrigated Crops in East Azarbaijan Province

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics

2 MSc student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

3 University of Tabriz

10.22034/saps.2025.62222.3239

Abstract

Background and Objectives: The present study aims to investigate the effect of climate change and price risk on sustainable production and the supply response of major irrigated crops in East Azerbaijan province, including wheat, barley, potato, and onion.
Materials and Methods: The expected prices, price risk, and yield risk of these products were first measured. Then, the Nominal Protection Rate (NPR) index of these products was estimated, considering the real exchange rate. Then,, the supply response functions of these crops were estimated using the SURE method,.
Results: The results showed that the relative expected price of the product and competing products, the average and fluctuations of rainfall and temperature, the ratio of price risk to the yield risk, and the NPR have a significant effect on the acreage of the products. The elasticity of the supply response to the NPR (0.08) showed that the government's support policy has been effective in the sustainable production of wheat. The results of the calculation of the supply response elasticities of irrigated barley showed that the increase in the barley price (0.22) compared to the price of competing products has a greater effect on sustainable production and the allocation of the acreage to the irrigated barley. Potato growers showed the most response to changes in rainfall fluctuations and maximum temperature,. The results of onion supply response function show that the farmers react more to the relative expected price of onion in the first place and to weather variables in the second place.

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Sustainable Production

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 July 2026

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