An Analysis of a Decade of Agricultural Development Trends under Climate Change in the Counties of the Eastern Basin of Lake Urmia

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Department of Rural Extension and Development, PhD Student in Agricultural Development

2 Professor, Department of Rural Extension and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

10.22034/saps.2026.69366.3411

Abstract

. The main objective of this study was to analyze the trend of agricultural development levels in the counties of the eastern basin of Lake Urmia.
Materials and Methods: This study is an applied research with descriptive data analysis, employing purposive sampling. Data were collected through two methods: secondary data and a questionnaire used to conduct Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis. Four dimensions were considered: arable farming (13 indicators), horticulture (13 indicators), livestock (6 indicators), and the rural sub-sector (3 indicators), totaling 38 different indicators. These indicators were combined into a composite index using AHP to measure the level of development in each of the four sub-sectors during the period from 2012 to 2022.
Findings: The results indicate an increasing trend in the development of the agricultural sector. The sub-sectors of arable farming, horticulture, livestock, and rural areas all showed upward trends. However, at the beginning of the study period (2012), the highest development levels were observed in the rural and livestock sub-sectors (0.423 and 0.382 respectively), with horticulture and arable farming ranking third and fourth (0.306 and 0.294). By the end of the study period (2022), due to improvements in development indices in horticulture and arable farming, these two sub-sectors rose to first and second place (0.471 and 0.442), while the rural (0.435) and livestock (0.384) sub-sectors placed third and fourth.

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Main Subjects

Journal of Agricultural Science and Sustainable Production

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 July 2027

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