آنالیز رشد گندم (.Triticum aestivum L)در شرایط تغییر اقلیم استان فارس با استفاده از مدل‌های مکانیستیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه تولیدات گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، مجتمع آموزش عالی سراوان، سراوان، ایران.

چکیده

این تحقیق در سه شهرستان اقلید، شیراز و لار که به ترتیب با آب و هوای سرد، معتدل و گرم و خشک هستند صورت گرفت. بدین منظور از مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3 تحت سه سناریوی انتشار A2، B1 و A1B طی سه دوره اقلیمی آینده (30-2011، 65-2045 و 99-2080) استفاده شد. همچنین از مدل APSIM به منظور شبیه‌سازی رشد و عملکرد گندم استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در دوره آینده بیوماس، عملکرد دانه و شاخص برداشت در مناطق و سناریو‌های مختلف انتشار با افزایش غلظت دی‌اکسید کربن (531 پی­پی­ام، متوسط تمامی سناریوها و دوره ها) و دما، روندی صعودی خواهند داشت به طوری که دوره 99-2080 تحت سناریوی A2 در شهرستان اقلید با بیوماس و عملکرد دانه به ترتیب حدود 2786 و 2/1051 گرم بر متر مربع بیشترین مقدار را خواهند داشت. همچنین در دوره آینده میزان فتوسنتز با افزایش غلظت دی‌اکسید کربن افزایش می‌یابد بنابراین سطح برگ و دوام آن نسبت به دوره پایه روند صعودی خواهد داشت. چنانچه دوره 99-2080 به طور متوسط 23/23 درصد و دوره 30-2011 به طور متوسط با 83/10 درصد بترتیب بیشترین و کمترین افزایش سطح برگ را در شهرستان‌ها و سناریو‌های انتشار خواهند داشت. در دوره‌های اقلیمی آینده تحت سناریو‌های مختلف انتشار میزان سرعت رشد و سرعت رشد نسبی با افزایش فتوسنتز و بیوماس افزایش پیدا کرد. همچنین با افزایش غلظت دی‌اکسید کربن سرعت جذب خالص نیز افزایش می‌یابد که دوره 30-2011 کمترین و دوره 99-2080 بیشترین سرعت جذب را بین دوره‌های اقلیمی آینده خواهند داشت.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Growth Analysis of Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Under Climate Change Conditions Using a Mechanistic Model in Fars Province of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yasin Qorani 1
  • Reza Deihimfard 1
  • Omid Nouri 1
  • Seyed Reza Amiri 2
چکیده [English]

The current study was carried out in three locations of Fars province included Eghlid, Shiraz and Lar which have a cold, mild and hot-dry climate, respectively. The General Circulation Model HadCM3 under three emission scenarios A2, B1 and A1B in three future periods (2011-30, 2045-65 and 2080-99) was applied. APSIM crop model was also used to simulate the growth and yield of wheat. The Averaged across locations, scenarios and periods in the future, a rising trend was simulated for biomass and grain yield compared with the baseline largely owing to the increasing carbon dioxide concentration (531 ppm). As an example, the highest biomass and grain yield was observed with 2786 and 1051 g.m-2, respectively in Eghlid in 2080-99 under the A2 scenario. Furthermore, considering that the rate of photosynthesis will be increased by increasing the carbon dioxide concentration in the future period, it will have the rising trend compared to the baseline period. According to the result of simulations, the highest increase in LAI was obtained under A2 scenario for 2080-99 in all of locations (23.23%) while the lowest increase in LAI under A2 and B1 observed for 2011-30 (10.83%). The growth and relative growth rates will be increased by increasing of photosynthesis rate and biomass in the all future periods under different emission scenarios. Overall, the results showed that increasing the carbon dioxide concentration in the future resulted in increased NAR. Accordingly, the highest and lowest NAR was simulated for 2080-99 and 2011-30, periods.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Biomass
  • Grain Yield
  • Growth Indices
  • Photosynthesis
  • Simulation of Growth

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دانش کشاورزی وتولید پایدار
دوره 29، شماره 1
اردیبهشت 1398
صفحه 33-50

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