Growth Analysis of Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Under Climate Change Conditions Using a Mechanistic Model in Fars Province of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

The current study was carried out in three locations of Fars province included Eghlid, Shiraz and Lar which have a cold, mild and hot-dry climate, respectively. The General Circulation Model HadCM3 under three emission scenarios A2, B1 and A1B in three future periods (2011-30, 2045-65 and 2080-99) was applied. APSIM crop model was also used to simulate the growth and yield of wheat. The Averaged across locations, scenarios and periods in the future, a rising trend was simulated for biomass and grain yield compared with the baseline largely owing to the increasing carbon dioxide concentration (531 ppm). As an example, the highest biomass and grain yield was observed with 2786 and 1051 g.m-2, respectively in Eghlid in 2080-99 under the A2 scenario. Furthermore, considering that the rate of photosynthesis will be increased by increasing the carbon dioxide concentration in the future period, it will have the rising trend compared to the baseline period. According to the result of simulations, the highest increase in LAI was obtained under A2 scenario for 2080-99 in all of locations (23.23%) while the lowest increase in LAI under A2 and B1 observed for 2011-30 (10.83%). The growth and relative growth rates will be increased by increasing of photosynthesis rate and biomass in the all future periods under different emission scenarios. Overall, the results showed that increasing the carbon dioxide concentration in the future resulted in increased NAR. Accordingly, the highest and lowest NAR was simulated for 2080-99 and 2011-30, periods.
 

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References

 
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JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION
Volume 29, Issue 1
April 2019
Pages 33-50

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