نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی- دانشگاه تبریز
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز
3 هیات علمی دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Background and Objectives: The present study aims to investigate the effect of climate change and price risk on sustainable production and the supply response of major irrigated crops in East Azerbaijan province, including wheat, barley, potato, and onion.
Materials and Methods: The expected prices, price risk, and yield risk of these products were first measured. Then, the Nominal Protection Rate (NPR) index of these products was estimated, considering the real exchange rate. Then,, the supply response functions of these crops were estimated using the SURE method,.
Results: The results showed that the relative expected price of the product and competing products, the average and fluctuations of rainfall and temperature, the ratio of price risk to the yield risk, and the NPR have a significant effect on the acreage of the products. The elasticity of the supply response to the NPR (0.08) showed that the government's support policy has been effective in the sustainable production of wheat. The results of the calculation of the supply response elasticities of irrigated barley showed that the increase in the barley price (0.22) compared to the price of competing products has a greater effect on sustainable production and the allocation of the acreage to the irrigated barley. Potato growers showed the most response to changes in rainfall fluctuations and maximum temperature,. The results of onion supply response function show that the farmers react more to the relative expected price of onion in the first place and to weather variables in the second place.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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