مدلسازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد گندم آبی تحت شرایط محدودیت آب در خراسان رضوی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

به دلیل افزایش جمعیت جهانی به همراه کاهش سطح زمین­های بارور و منابع آب، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر بهره­وری کشاورزی به طور ویژه­ای دارای اهمیت می­باشد. به همین منظور این تحقیق در شش شهرستان از استان خراسان رضوی ( قوچان، گناباد، مشهد، سبزوار، تربت­حیدریه و تربت­جام) انجام شد. ابتدا اقلیم آینده (سال 2050) با استفاده از داده­های اقلیمی بلندمدت در دوره پایه  (2010-1980) و با روش ارائه شده توسطAgMIP، تحت دو سناریوی اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 شبیه­سازی شد. مدل گردش عمومی مورد استفاده در این تحقیق   MPI-ESM-MRبود و به منظور شبیه­سازی رشد و عملکرد گندم از مدل APSIM-Wheat در شرایط  محدودیت آب استفاده شد. نتایج شبیه­سازی­ها نشان دادند که میانگین تغییرات دمای طول فصل رشد در منطقه مورد مطالعه در آینده نسبت به پایه (79/9 درجه سانتی­گراد) افزایشی بوده و تحت هر دو RCP به ترتیب برابر با 41/1 و 83/1 درجه سانتی­گراد می­باشد. هم­چنین نتایج نشان دادند که در آینده طول دوره رشد بین 13 تا 6/24 روز و فاصله زمانی کاشت تا گلدهی بین 2/13 تا 4/30 روز کاهش یافته و از سوی دیگر طول دوره پر شدن دانه بین 2/0 تا 4/4 روز افزایش می­یابد. در این تحقیق اثرات متقابل دما و CO2 و مجموع تغییرات رشد و نموی گندم آبی موجب تغییرات مثبت عمکرد دانه در آینده در بیشتر شهرستان­های مورد بررسی (1 تا 9/12 درصد) و کاهش عملکرد در تربت­حیدریه (1/4- درصد) شد. یافته­های این تحقیق همچنین نشان دادند تغییر تاریخ کاشت در آینده موجب افزایش بیشتر عملکرد خواهد شد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Wheat Yield Under Water Limited Conditions in Khorasan Razavi Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Zeinali Mobarakeh
  • Reza Deihimfard
  • Jafar Kambouzia
چکیده [English]

          The current study was conducted in six locations of Khorasan Razavi province (Ghoochan, Gonabad, Mashhad, Sabzevar, TorbateHeydariyeh and TorbateJam). At first, future climate (2050) was generated using long term climate data of baseline (2010-1980) and by AgMIP method on two climates scenario (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). A Global Circulation Model namely MPI-ESM-MR along with APSIM-Wheat model were used for growth and yield simulation of wheat under water-limited conditions. Simulating results showed that average changes in growth season temperature will be increased as 14.4 and 18.6 percent in the studied areas in future in comparison with baseline for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively (1.41 and 1.83 °C compared with the baseline). Also, results indicated that the length of growing season and days to flowering will be declined 13 to 24.6 days and 13.2 to 30.4 days, respectively. In this research, the grain yield had positive changes in future in most of the studied locations due to the interaction of temperature and CO2. The results of this study also revealed that changing sowing date could result in an increase in grain yield in future. Locations with higher baseline temperature well responded to two weeks earlier in sowing date while locations with lower baseline temperature had good performance in sowing date of two weeks later which resulted in further yield increase in the future. Overall, the findings of this study suggested that changing sowing date in future could further increase wheat grain yield which is highly important for food security, according to the increasing demand in future.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agmip
  • APSIM-Wheat
  • Climate Change
  • Grain Yield
  • Modeling
  • Sowing Date
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