شبیه‌سازی مراحل فنولوژیکی گندم آبی رقم مهرگان تحت تنش ‌خشکی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

3 گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولیدات گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

چکیده

اهداف: ارزیابی رخداد تغییر اقلیم، توزیع نامناسب و توقف بارندگی‌ها در مراحل انتهایی دوره‌ی رشد گندم در ورامین ضروری است.
مواد و روش‌ها: از خروجی مدل گردش عمومی جو HadGEM تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، برای شبیه-سازی اقلیم آینده با بهره‌گیری از مدل تولید داده AgMIP با داده‌های دوره پایه (1980-2009)، در دوره‌های 2025، 2055 و 2085 استفاده شد. شبیه‌سازی مراحل فنولوژیکی گندم با مدل SSMو برای واسنجی و اعتباردهی مدل، آزمایشی در قالب طرح بلوک‌های کامل تصادفی با تیمارهای؛ ] بدون تنش (NS1)، تنش در آبستنی(DS2)، گلدهی (DS3)، شیری شدن (DS4)، و خمیری شدن (DS5)[، با 3 تکرار، در دوره‌ی رشد 2020-2019 در ورامین انجام شد.

یافته‌ها: مدل SSM به‌خوبی مراحل فنولوژیکی را شبیه‌سازی کرد. ، در دوره 2085 تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 بیشترین افزایش دمای بیشینه و کمینه به‌ترتیب با 9/6 و 6/5 سانتی‌گراد نسبت به دوره پایه مشاهده شد. مقدار بارش در دوره‌های 2025 و 2055 تحت سناریو RCP8.5 دچار کاهش، اما در سناریو RCP4.5 روندی افزایشی داشت. کم‌ترین اختلاف روز تا گلدهی، شروع و پایان پر شدن دانه و روز تا رسیدگی مربوط به دوره 2025 تحت سناریو RCP4.5 به‌ترتیب با 3، 9، 12 و 11 روز بود و بیشترین اختلاف آنها در دوره 2085 تحت سناریو RCP8.5 به‌ترتیب با 90، 77، 47و 43 روز، نسبت به دروه پایه مشاهده شد.
نتیجه‌گیری: افزایش دما و گاهاً کاهش بارش، اثرات سودمند افزایش غلظت دی‌اکسید کربن را خنثی کرده و در نهایت این عوامل در ترکیب با یکدیگر باعث کوتاه‌تر شدن طول دوره مراحل فنولوژیکی مورد بررسی شده‌‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of Phonological Stages of Irrigated Wheat Cv. Mehregan under Drought Stress in Climate Change Condition

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Mousavi baygi 1
  • saeid shiukhy soqanloo 2
  • benjamin torabi 3
  • Mahmoud Raeini 2
1 department of water engineering, Agricultural Faculty, ferdowsi university of mashhad.
2 Department of water engineering, faculty of Agricultural engineering, Sari Agricultural Natural Resources University.
3 Department of Agronomy , Faculty of Crop Production, Gorgan University of Agriculture and Natural Recourses
چکیده [English]

Background & Objective: It is necessary to evaluation of the occurrence of climate change, Inadequate distribution and Stop of rainfall in the final stages of wheat growth in Varamin.
Material & Objective: From the output of HadGEM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, to simulate the future climate using AgMIP model with long-term baseline data (1980-2009), in the periods of 2025, 2055 and 2085 were used. SSM model was used to simulate the phonological stages of wheat and in order to calibrate and validate the model, an experiment in the form of a randomized complete block design with five treatments including; [No stress, booting stage, Flowering, Milking, and Doughing], with 3 replications, was carried out during the 2020-2019 growth season in Varamin.
Result: The SSM model simulated the occurrence of phonological stages with high accuracy. In 2085 period under RCP8.5, the highest increase of Tmax and Tmin was observed with 6.9 °C and 5.6 °C compared to the baseline period, respectively. While the amount of precipitation decreased in 2025 and 2055 under RCP8.5, but it increased in RCP4.5. The smallest difference between day to Flowering, BSG, TSG and day to was related to the period 2025 under RCP4.5 with 3, 9, 12 and 11 days, respectively. The highest differences were observed in the period 2085 under the RCP8.5 with 90, 77, 47 and 43 days, respectively.
Conclusion: Increasing the temperature and decreasing rainfall have neutralized the beneficial effects of increasing CO2 concentration and these factors have shortened the duration of phonological stages.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Climate change
  • Drought stress
  • Phonological stage
  • Scenario
  • SSM model

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دانش کشاورزی وتولید پایدار
دوره 33، شماره 1
اردیبهشت 1402
صفحه 17-33

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