ارزیابی و شبیه سازی ردپای آب محصولات کشاورزی در سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم: مطالعه موردی حوضه آبریز کشف رود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل.

2 استادیار دانشگاه زابل

3 دانشگاه زابل

4 ایران، خوزستان، اهواز، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی

5 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان

چکیده

در این مطالعه تلاش شد ردپای آب محصولات کشاورزی تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم در حوضه آبریز کشف رود شبیه سازی و مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد.
در این مطالعه بمنظور ارزیابی یکپارچه منابع آب از نرم افزار WEAP استفاده شد. همچنین، از ابزار MABIA موجود در نرم‌افزار WEAP جهت شبیه سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم برای محصولات زراعی از جمله گندم، جو، یونجه، گوجه‌فرنگی، خیار، پیاز و ذرت‌علوفه‌ای بهره گرفته شد. شبیه‌سازی ردپاهای آب و کربن با استفاده از خروجی‌های مدل WEAP و MABIA برای سال‌های 2013-2040 انجام گرفت.
سناریوهای انتشار بدبینانه و میانه ردپای آب نشان داد که نیازآبی و عملکرد محصولات به ترتیب افزایش و کاهش می‌یابد. بیشترین کاهش عملکرد در سناریو میانه را دو محصول جو و یونجه با 7/25 و 6/25 درصد به خود اختصاص دادند. همچنین بیشترین میزان تغییر نیاز خالص آبی متعلق به محصول سیب‌زمینی معادل 8/64 درصد و پیاز 37/59 درصد در سناریو بدبینانه نسبت به شرایط جاری بود. بطور کلی از محاسبه ردپای آب این نتیجه حاصل شد که بیشترین ردپای آب محصولات منتخب را بترتیب چغندرقند، ذرت‌علوفه‌ای، پیاز، یونجه، گوجه‌فرنگی و خیار با 18 ، 15، 14، 14، 13 و 12 هزار متر مکعب در هکتار دارا بودند. کمترین مقدار ردپای کربن نیز به محصولات گندم، جو، یونجه و ذرت‌علوفه‌ای اختصاص یافت.
سناریوهای اقلیم ردپای آب محصولات کشاورزی حجم بیشتری نسبت به ردپای آب سبز خواهد داشت.افزایش تبخیروتعرق و کاهش میزان بارندگی در سطح حوضه بود و از سوی دیگر پیامدهای منفی رخداد پدیده تغییر اقلیم را برای کشاورزان منطقه نمایان می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and Simulation of the water footprint of agricultural products in climate change scenarios: A case study of Kashf Roud Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • elahe Ahani 1
  • saman ziaee 2
  • hamid mohammadi 3
  • Mostafa Mardani Najafabadi 4
  • abbas Mirzaee 5
1 PhD student in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Zabol University.
2 Assistant Professor University of Zabol
3 zabol university
4 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Rural development Engineering, Khuzestan Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources University, Ahvaz, Khozestan, Iran.
5 5. Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan
چکیده [English]

an attempt was made to simulate and evaluate the water footprint of agricultural products under the conditions of climate change in the Kashf River watershed. I, WEAP was used for the integrated assessment of water resources. Also, the MABIA tool available in the WEAP was used to simulate the effects of climate change on crops such as wheat, barley, alfalfa, tomatoes, cucumbers, onions, and fodder corn. The simulation of water and carbon footprints was done using the outputs of WEAP and MABIA models for the years 2013-2040.
respectively. The biggest decrease in yield in the middle scenario was attributed to the two products barley and alfalfa with 25.7 and 25.6 percent. Also, the highest amount of change in net water requirement belongs to potato crops equal to 64.8%, and onion at 59.37% in the pessimistic scenario compared to the current conditions. In general, from the calculation of the water footprint, it was found that the highest water footprint of the selected products is sugar beet, fodder corn, onion, alfalfa, tomato, and cucumber with 18, 15, 14, 14, 13, and 12 thousand cubic meters. The lowest carbon footprint was assigned to wheat, barley, alfalfa, and fodder corn products, the water footprint of agricultural products will be larger than the green water footprint. The increase in evaporation and transpiration and the decrease in rainfall at the basin level, show the negative consequences of the climate change phenomenon for the farmers of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • The agricultural sector
  • Climate Change
  • Water Footprint
  • Carbon Footprint
  • and Climate Scenarios (optimistic
  • medium
  • and pessimistic)

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دانش کشاورزی وتولید پایدار
دوره 34، شماره 1
فروردین 1403
صفحه 287-304

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